Sat, Oct 29, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 5, New York Rangers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 011 | 316 | 00 | 1 | 540 |
| NYR | 09 | 29 | 27 | 03 | 0 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:12OTTChris NeilAssists: Filip Kuba, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 6:24NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Brad Richards, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.48 xG1–1
- P2 7:44NYRBrad RichardsPPAssists: Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 4:53NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Derek Stepan, Wojtek Wolski · Snap, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 8:05NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Marian Gaborik, Wojtek Wolski · Slap, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 9:18OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jason Spezza, Filip Kuba · Tip-in, 0.35 xG2–4
- P3 12:49OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 17:10OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Colin Greening, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NYR Erik Christensen stopped
- 2. OTT Milan Michalek scored
- 3. NYR Brad Richards stopped
- 4. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 5. NYR Wojtek Wolski stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:26NYRBrian Boyle: Boarding2 min
- P1 9:35OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:05OTTZenon Konopka: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 4:05OTTZenon Konopka: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 17:31NYRSteve Eminger: Holding2 min
- P3 5:22NYRMichael Sauer: Interference2 min
- P3 12:09NYRWojtek Wolski: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Greening13:19
xG 1.67–0.30 (85%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Alfredsson – Foligno – Da Costa8:57
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Konopka – Condra – Winchester2:34
xG 0.11–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Daugavins – Smith6:42
xG 0.51–0.58 (47%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson16:59
xG 1.86–0.74 (72%)attempts 20–13goals 3–1
- Phillips – Rundblad12:11
xG 0.80–0.24 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips2:29
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Wolski – Stepan5:16
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Newbury – Anisimov – Stepan2:11
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Christensen – Wolski4:45
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Dubinsky – Callahan11:40
xG 0.65–1.30 (33%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Del Zotto2:28
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sauer – Del Zotto12:54
xG 0.35–0.60 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Eminger – Erixon5:46
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).