Sat, Oct 29, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 29 | 117 | 337 |
| TOR | 16 | 112 | 211 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:31TORMikhail GrabovskiPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Clarke MacArthur · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 10:21PITMatt CookeAssists: Arron Asham, Ben Lovejoy · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 11:30TORTim ConnollyPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 15:06PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.53 xG2–2
- P3 3:08TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 7:59PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, James Neal · Slap, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 10:08TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Tim Connolly, Mike Komisarek · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:55TORPhilippe Dupuis: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:16PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:17PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:18TORMatthew Lombardi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:06TORDavid Steckel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 7:06TORPhilippe Dupuis: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:10TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:10PITSteve Sullivan: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestPark – Dupuis – Kunitz6:53
xG 0.53–0.35 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Asham – Cooke – Letestu8:44
xG 0.30–0.32 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Park – Asham – Dupuis2:10
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Adams – Vitale – Jeffrey4:59
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Lovejoy11:44
xG 0.61–0.27 (69%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Orpik – Niskanen3:23
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Orpik – Engelland12:41
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak2:23
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin10:41
xG 0.68–0.50 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Connolly – Lupul – Kessel10:04
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Steckel – Dupuis – Brown11:42
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson16:12
xG 0.89–0.34 (72%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Liles – Komisarek12:59
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Liles – Phaneuf3:38
xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).