Sat, Oct 29, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 18 | 07 | 125 |
| PHI | 110 | 010 | 414 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:57PHIScott HartnellAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 3:11CARJussi JokinenAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Chad LaRose · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 0:39PHIJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 5:46PHIMax TalbotSHAssists: Claude Giroux, Braydon Coburn · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 7:36PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 12:17PHIJaromir JagrAssists: Scott Hartnell · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:35PHIScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:14CARJoni Pitkanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:35CARTim Gleason: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:21PHIAndrej Meszaros: Holding2 min
- P3 5:12PHIJaromir Jagr: Interference2 min
- P3 13:58CARTim Brent: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:28CARBryan Allen: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:17CARPatrick Dwyer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Read
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Staal – Tlusty11:42
xG 0.74–0.60 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner8:38
xG 0.45–0.44 (50%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Dwyer – Sutter7:05
xG 0.14–0.22 (40%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter2:13
xG 0.02–0.20 (9%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Harrison14:30
xG 0.92–0.58 (61%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Allen – Gleason16:21
xG 1.00–1.50 (40%)attempts 18–15goals 1–2
- Pitkanen – McBain13:25
xG 0.16–0.66 (19%)attempts 4–15goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux11:59
xG 1.10–0.58 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 4–1
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Read9:30
xG 0.82–0.70 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Shelley – Rinaldo – Couturier3:59
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Talbot – Nodl – Simmonds7:48
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gustafsson8:11
xG 0.82–0.04 (96%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros3:32
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lilja – Meszaros9:28
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).