Mon, Oct 31, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Winnipeg Jets 4, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 27 | 09 | 112 | 03 | 2 | 431 |
| FLA | 120 | 09 | 211 | 02 | 0 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Andrew Ladd, Mark Stuart · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:58WPGEvander KanePPAssists: Nik Antropov, Zach Bogosian · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 19:40FLAJason GarrisonAssists: Brian Campbell, Tomas Fleischmann · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 3:13FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Stephen Weiss, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 17:50FLATomas FleischmannPPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:10WPGEvander KaneAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WPG Tim Stapleton stopped
- 2. FLA Kris Versteeg stopped
- 3. WPG Andrew Ladd scored
- 4. FLA Mike Santorelli stopped
- 5. WPG Kyle Wellwood scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:40FLAScottie Upshall: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:57WPGDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:39WPGKenndal McArdle: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:22WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:22WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:10WPGAndrew Ladd: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:10FLAJack Skille: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:54FLADmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:50WPGBlake Wheeler: Holding2 min · PPG
- OT 5:00WPGZach Bogosian: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Ladd – Little8:20
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Stapleton – Kane4:18
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Antropov – Kane – Burmistrov8:51
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – McArdle – Stapleton4:59
xG 0.04–0.16 (22%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Byfuglien11:27
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Stuart – Bogosian11:43
xG 0.38–0.34 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Stuart – Jones2:24
xG 0.09–0.08 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Kennedy – Matthias8:46
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg12:33
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 15–6goals 2–1
- Sturm – Santorelli – Skille7:22
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Upshall10:28
xG 0.28–0.16 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Gudbranson10:35
xG 0.55–0.16 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Garrison13:59
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Weaver – Kulikov14:57
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).