Tue, Nov 1, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Anaheim Ducks 4, Washington Capitals 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 26 | 15 | 14 | 00 | 415 |
| WSH | 09 | 212 | 218 | 11 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:05ANASaku KoivuAssists: Teemu Selanne, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 13:39ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Saku Koivu, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P2 8:59ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Cam Fowler, Francois Beauchemin · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 13:23WSHJoel WardAssists: Brooks Laich, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 16:33WSHDennis WidemanPPAssists: Brooks Laich, Joel Ward · Slap, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 9:13ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–2
- P3 11:42WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: John Erskine, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 19:18WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Jason Chimera, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–4
- OT 2:18WSHNicklas BackstromGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Jeff Schultz · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:10ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:10WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:28ANAMaxime Macenauer: Interference2 min
- P2 10:41ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:04WSHTomas Vokoun: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:36ANACam Fowler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Cogliano13:20
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 3–0
- Beleskey – Macenauer – Smith-Pelly3:37
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan15:40
xG 0.24–0.55 (31%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Gordon – Bonino – McMillan9:39
xG 0.12–0.63 (16%)attempts 5–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lydman – Visnovsky16:43
xG 0.64–0.63 (50%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Lydman – Fowler2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Sbisa8:03
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Laich12:50
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Semin – Johansson – Eakin10:36
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom9:45
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Knuble – Hendricks – Perreault6:05
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Wideman10:34
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–1goals 1–0
- Schultz – Alzner12:59
xG 0.56–0.10 (84%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Erskine – Carlson3:43
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).