Thu, Nov 3, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 3, Los Angeles Kings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 010 | 26 | 111 | 327 |
| LAK | 03 | 07 | 09 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:26EDMRyan SmythGWGAssists: Ryan Jones, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 17:38EDMLennart PetrellAssists: Ben Eager, Anton Lander · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 1:06EDMCorey PotterAssists: Sam Gagner · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:28LAKJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:14LAKDustin Penner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:53LAKAlec Martinez: Holding2 min
- P2 4:00EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:48LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:48EDMBen Eager: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:48LAKEthan Moreau: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:48EDMEric Belanger: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Horcoff – Jones10:36
xG 0.63–0.25 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:07
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Eager – Petrell – Lander6:26
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 1–7goals 1–0
- Belanger – Gagner – Paajarvi12:10
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPotter – Petry14:48
xG 0.77–0.26 (74%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Gilbert – Smid14:11
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Peckham – Teubert10:08
xG 0.02–0.30 (6%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestMoreau – Lewis – Clifford4:56
xG 0.22–0.03 (87%)attempts 9–1goals 0–1
- Brown – Richards – Kopitar4:53
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stoll – Richardson – Penner7:24
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Gagne – Williams – Richardson3:05
xG 0.16–0.08 (65%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez13:03
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Scuderi – Johnson14:41
xG 0.28–0.64 (30%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Doughty17:36
xG 0.25–0.75 (25%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).