Thu, Nov 3, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, San Jose Sharks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 215 | 16 | 011 | 04 | 0 | 336 |
| SJS | 04 | 117 | 214 | 02 | 1 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:24PITDeryk EngellandAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–0
- P1 2:04PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Steve Sullivan, James Neal · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 2:37SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Martin Havlat, Jim Vandermeer · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 9:37PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: James Neal, Kris Letang · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 9:11SJSRyane CloweAssists: Martin Havlat, Dan Boyle · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 15:06SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Michal Handzus, Dan Boyle · Slap, 0.14 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 2. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 3. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
- 4. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 5. SJS Ryane Clowe scored
- 6. PIT Pascal Dupuis stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:31SJSBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:31PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:06PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:06SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:52PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P2 16:06PITMatt Niskanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:06SJSMartin Havlat: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Malkin – Neal15:22
xG 1.01–0.52 (66%)attempts 21–17goals 3–1
- Park – Dupuis – Kunitz11:16
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Adams – Vitale – Jeffrey5:38
xG 0.12–0.18 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Asham – Cooke – Letestu9:06
xG 0.04–0.37 (9%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Engelland5:57
xG 0.68–0.23 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Engelland – Letang3:37
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Martin – Letang10:29
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Havlat – McGinn4:45
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Havlat – McGinn2:12
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Mitchell6:02
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Havlat – Clowe – Couture2:59
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVandermeer – Braun12:46
xG 0.58–0.12 (83%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Boyle – Murray17:47
xG 0.73–0.44 (62%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Murray – Burns2:00
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).