Fri, Nov 4, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 015 | 49 | 08 | 00 | 432 |
| TBL | 08 | 414 | 06 | 14 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:15TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Malone, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 1:05CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 4:55TBLBrett ConnollyAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 6:17CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Kane, Steve Montador · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 7:10CHIDaniel CarcilloUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 7:22CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 11:45TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P2 19:27TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Ryan Malone · Slap, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 4:06TBLVincent LecavalierGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:55TBLRyan Shannon: Holding2 min
- P2 0:35TBLBrett Connolly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:51CHIViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Stalberg – Toews12:48
xG 0.64–0.35 (65%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Hossa – Sharp – Kane17:36
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Mayers – Carcillo – Kruger7:02
xG 0.31–0.51 (37%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Frolik11:23
xG 0.22–0.69 (24%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMontador – Lepisto12:49
xG 0.86–0.16 (85%)attempts 17–4goals 2–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson20:12
xG 0.61–0.56 (52%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- O'Donnell – Seabrook2:22
xG 0.02–0.02 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Purcell – Stamkos14:07
xG 1.28–0.12 (91%)attempts 20–7goals 2–1
- Hall – Thompson – Pyatt11:12
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos2:25
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Moore – Shannon – Downie7:45
xG 0.11–0.52 (17%)attempts 3–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Gilroy15:04
xG 0.82–0.31 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 3–1
- Brewer – Hedman17:01
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Clark – Kubina13:11
xG 0.24–0.66 (27%)attempts 9–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).