Sat, Nov 5, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Washington Capitals 3, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 212 | 07 | 19 | 328 |
| NYI | 011 | 215 | 39 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:24WSHJoel WardAssists: John Carlson, Jeff Halpern · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 18:41WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Jeff Schultz · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 1:41NYIFrans NielsenAssists: PA Parenteau · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 16:55NYIBrian RolstonAssists: Frans Nielsen, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 6:28NYIMatt MartinAssists: Steve Staios, Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 9:12WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 18:14NYIPA ParenteauGWGAssists: Milan Jurcina, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–4
- P3 18:59NYIJohn TavaresENAssists: Rick DiPietro · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:11WSHAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:57WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:57NYIPA Parenteau: Boarding5 min
- P1 18:19WSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:47WSHJeff Halpern: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:44NYISteve Staios: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Halpern – Ward6:07
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom12:07
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Knuble – Hendricks – Perreault6:44
xG 0.12–0.33 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ward – Laich5:15
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Carlson17:38
xG 0.70–0.42 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Schultz – Alzner13:41
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Erskine – Wideman13:22
xG 0.67–0.74 (48%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Parenteau – Nielsen12:04
xG 0.83–0.29 (74%)attempts 13–10goals 3–0
- Pandolfo – Bailey – Martin6:51
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Moulson – Grabner – Tavares12:18
xG 0.69–0.32 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Comeau – Okposo8:29
xG 0.17–0.50 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Jurcina13:18
xG 1.14–0.46 (71%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:25
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Staios – Streit15:57
xG 0.73–1.06 (41%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).