Sat, Nov 5, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 2, Phoenix Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 011 | 03 | 212 | 226 |
| PHX | 015 | 28 | 27 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:44PHXDaymond LangkowAssists: Keith Yandle, Mike Smith · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 17:58PHXAdrian AucoinPPAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 9:27EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 11:36PHXBoyd GordonGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Radim Vrbata · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 13:47EDMTheo PeckhamAssists: Colten Teubert, Magnus Paajarvi · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:49PHXRay WhitneyENAssists: Radim Vrbata, Boyd Gordon · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:14EDMLadislav Smid: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:00PHXRaffi Torres: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:25EDMLadislav Smid: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:28PHXRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Langkow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:48
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Jones14:32
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Eager – Petrell – Lander7:22
xG 0.18–0.16 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Belanger – Gagner – Paajarvi8:47
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPeckham – Teubert11:18
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Smid16:55
xG 0.68–0.58 (54%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Potter – Petry16:45
xG 0.40–0.56 (41%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- Pyatt – O'Reilly – Boedker9:16
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
- Langkow – Doan – Korpikoski14:41
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Torres – O'Sullivan – Chipchura6:28
xG 0.02–0.18 (11%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Gordon12:12
xG 0.43–0.66 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle17:15
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Klesla – Schlemko12:27
xG 0.41–0.59 (41%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson15:02
xG 0.16–0.59 (22%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).