Sat, Nov 5, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 4, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 113 | 213 | 12 | 435 |
| SJS | 019 | 211 | 17 | 01 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:02NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Colin Wilson · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 4:40SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 9:50SJSMartin HavlatPPAssists: Logan Couture, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
- P3 0:52SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 2:57NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Shea Weber, Francis Bouillon · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–3
- P3 5:58NSHRyan SuterPPAssists: Martin Erat, Shea Weber · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 2:53NSHDavid LegwandGWGAssists: Francis Bouillon · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:22NSHMike Fisher: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:02SJSJamie McGinn: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:01NSHTeemu Laakso: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:09NSHShea Weber: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:40SJSJoe Thornton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 4:57SJSPatrick Marleau: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:56NSHJonathon Blum: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson12:48
xG 0.81–0.13 (86%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Halischuk7:56
xG 0.24–0.04 (85%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Bergfors – Geoffrion2:35
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Smith11:29
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 8–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Weber12:55
xG 0.91–0.04 (96%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Laakso – Hillen12:10
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber3:13
xG 0.03–0.01 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Couture11:09
xG 0.50–0.22 (70%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Handzus – Havlat – McGinn7:31
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Handzus – Mitchell – McGinn5:19
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Winchester – Murray – Desjardins3:47
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Braun12:16
xG 0.32–0.26 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – Murray16:30
xG 0.45–0.72 (38%)attempts 20–16goals 2–1
- Burns – Vlasic15:13
xG 0.18–0.58 (23%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).