Sun, Nov 6, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Winnipeg Jets 0, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 07 | 07 | 023 |
| NYR | 05 | 18 | 214 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:01NYRDerek StepanPPGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 8:31NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Derek Stepan, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 19:58NYRMarian GaborikENAssists: Artem Anisimov · Backhand, 0.62 xG0–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:07NYRMarian Gaborik: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:31NYRArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:10NYRDerek Stepan: Interference2 min
- P2 6:54WPGAndrew Ladd: Holding2 min
- P2 9:36WPGAndrew Ladd: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:14WPGBrett Festerling: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:12WPGMark Flood: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:43WPGMark Stuart: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:12NYRBrian Boyle: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:34WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Burmistrov won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little3:30
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Kane – Burmistrov10:03
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Ladd – Little8:05
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Kane – Burmistrov2:37
xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFlood – Festerling6:18
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Oduya – Byfuglien12:28
xG 0.63–0.41 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Stuart – Bogosian12:01
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Anisimov – Stepan8:30
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust9:12
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Avery – Christensen – Deveaux4:47
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Dubinsky – Callahan10:02
xG 0.21–0.46 (32%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Del Zotto13:27
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh16:42
xG 0.64–0.67 (49%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Eminger7:57
xG 0.10–0.43 (19%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).