Mon, Nov 7, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Los Angeles Kings 2, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 014 | 18 | 19 | 231 |
| SJS | 07 | 321 | 110 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:19LAKJack JohnsonPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 11:39SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 12:35SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Dan Boyle, Ryane Clowe · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 17:02SJSDan BoylePPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 6:40SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–4
- P3 8:28LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Jonathan Quick · Slap, 0.43 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:09LAKEthan Moreau: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:07SJSMichal Handzus: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:22LAKScott Parse: Kneeing2 min
- P2 4:28SJSColin White: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:09SJSTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:25LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:29LAKMatt Greene: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:19LAKWillie Mitchell: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:10SJSColin White: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:32LAKDustin Penner: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:36SJSDouglas Murray: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:38SJSLogan Couture: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Williams – Kopitar11:59
xG 0.92–0.31 (75%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Moreau – Richardson – Lewis5:12
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Stoll – Parse – Clifford7:39
xG 0.05–0.06 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Richards – Penner9:15
xG 0.31–0.54 (37%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Greene2:52
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Doughty13:07
xG 0.44–0.19 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Greene – Martinez9:54
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Couture7:42
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Winchester – Murray – Desjardins5:12
xG 0.04–0.05 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Handzus – Mitchell – McGinn10:17
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Marleau – Havlat – Clowe10:03
xG 0.32–0.85 (27%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun5:26
xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- White – Burns6:42
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- White – Braun4:18
xG 0.02–0.05 (29%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).