Tue, Nov 8, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 3, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 15 | 19 | 112 | 326 |
| CGY | 015 | 012 | 014 | 041 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:35MINDarroll PoweGWGAssists: Nick Johnson, Kyle Brodziak · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 12:47MINDany HeatleyPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Marek Zidlicky · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 19:22MINGuillaume LatendresseENAssists: Dany Heatley, Nate Prosser · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:31CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:31MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:24MINBrad Staubitz: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:52MINNate Prosser: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:19MINJustin Falk: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:37CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:41MINNick Johnson: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P2 13:41CGYJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:41MINNick Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:59MINMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min
- P3 5:22MINMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:15CGYAlex Tanguay: Holding2 min
- P3 13:16MINColton Gillies: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Johnson – Powe6:24
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Latendresse9:34
xG 0.42–0.28 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi8:57
xG 0.31–0.35 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Zidlicky10:05
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Falk – Prosser11:10
xG 0.37–0.69 (35%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon11:12
xG 0.75–1.18 (39%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Horak6:49
xG 0.38–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Stajan – Stempniak – Bourque5:54
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay2:22
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Letourneau-Leblond2:41
xG 0.01–0.02 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Giordano11:45
xG 1.19–0.47 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler9:45
xG 0.82–0.15 (84%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Hannan – Smith2:46
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).