Wed, Nov 9, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 14 | 04 | 01 | 115 |
| TBL | 07 | 06 | 19 | 12 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:34PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Kimmo Timonen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 7:41TBLMarc-Andre BergeronPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Vincent Lecavalier · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- OT 2:30TBLBrett ConnollyGWGAssists: Dominic Moore, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:15TBLVincent Lecavalier: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:45PHIScott Hartnell: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:28PHIMatt Carle: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:03TBLNate Thompson: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:24TBLEric Brewer: Interference2 min
- P2 9:17TBLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:01PHIChris Pronger: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:27PHIChris Pronger: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:51TBLDwayne Roloson: Delaying game2 min
- P3 3:09PHIBraydon Coburn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 3:09TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:17PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:17PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min
- P3 16:05PHIScott Hartnell: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk – Couturier4:23
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Brière – van Riemsdyk – Simmonds7:52
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux10:41
xG 0.25–0.67 (27%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Read6:36
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Coburn – Meszaros2:38
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lilja – Meszaros7:41
xG 0.07–0.19 (28%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros2:45
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Shannon5:32
xG 0.68–0.07 (91%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Downie – Purcell – Stamkos3:56
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Connolly3:23
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos5:33
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Gilroy12:45
xG 0.76–0.14 (85%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kubina – Bergeron11:05
xG 0.68–0.13 (84%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Clark – Gervais10:21
xG 0.24–0.08 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).