Thu, Nov 10, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Edmonton Oilers 3, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 212 | 05 | 113 | 330 |
| BOS | 213 | 29 | 26 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11BOSJohnny BoychukAssists: David Krejci, Nathan Horton · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:55BOSJordan CaronAssists: Zach Hamill · Snap, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 12:02EDMRyan SmythAssists: Theo Peckham, Ales Hemsky · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 12:31EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 3:50BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Joe Corvo, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 6:24BOSTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 15:18EDMRyan SmythPPAssists: Eric Belanger, Ales Hemsky · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 17:13BOSMilan LucicPPAssists: Joe Corvo, Nathan Horton · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–5
- P3 17:57BOSBrad MarchandUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:17EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:09EDMJeff Petry: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:29BOSShawn Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:48EDMJordan Eberle: Interference2 min
- P3 1:05EDMCorey Potter: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:08BOSDennis Seidenberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:15BOSGregory Campbell: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:25BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:56EDMCam Barker: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:42BOSChris Kelly: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Eager – Petrell – Lander4:56
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:50
xG 0.40–0.63 (39%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
- Belanger – Jones – Gagner6:46
xG 0.18–0.59 (24%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Hemsky12:13
xG 0.29–0.81 (26%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Petry – Peckham11:22
xG 0.39–0.43 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Potter – Barker13:48
xG 0.48–0.85 (36%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Smid12:49
xG 0.36–0.86 (30%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin13:33
xG 0.92–0.41 (69%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic12:23
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Pouliot5:00
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kelly – Hamill – Caron7:49
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Seidenberg11:17
xG 1.02–0.41 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Chara – Boychuk12:38
xG 0.83–0.25 (77%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Ference – McQuaid6:56
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).