Thu, Nov 10, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Florida Panthers 5, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 25 | 210 | 15 | 520 |
| WPG | 04 | 06 | 217 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14FLAKris VersteegAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Stephen Weiss · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 17:27FLAKris VersteegPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 4:53FLAJason GarrisonGWGAssists: Kris Versteeg, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 18:04FLAMike SantorelliPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–0
- P3 2:28WPGTim StapletonPPAssists: Evander Kane, Nik Antropov · Slap, 0.52 xG4–1
- P3 5:40WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Zach Bogosian, Mark Stuart · Deflected, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 18:41FLAKris VersteegENAssists: Dmitry Kulikov · Backhand, 0.69 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:42FLAKeaton Ellerby: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:14WPGNik Antropov: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P2 5:25WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min
- P2 16:43WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:46FLATomas Fleischmann: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:47WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:07FLAMike Weaver: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:54WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSturm – Kopecky – Santorelli2:13
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg11:18
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Upshall – Santorelli3:36
xG 0.02–0.06 (27%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sturm – Goc – Skille9:51
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Garrison2:37
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov15:21
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Campbell – Garrison13:10
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Slater – Glass6:06
xG 0.45–0.01 (97%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Antropov – Kane – Burmistrov11:53
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little8:12
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Stapleton3:25
xG 0.06–0.02 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Byfuglien17:11
xG 0.97–0.27 (78%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Flood – Festerling10:07
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Stuart – Bogosian12:30
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).