Fri, Nov 11, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 013 | 06 | 16 | 125 |
| CHI | 113 | 111 | 27 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:09CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Daniel Carcillo, Patrick Sharp · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 12:11CHIBrent SeabrookPPGWGAssists: Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 10:50CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 16:49CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Marian Hossa, Jonathan Toews · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 19:56CHIPatrick KaneENAssists: Patrick Sharp, Daniel Carcillo · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:43CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:16CGYTim Jackman: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:48CGYDavid Moss: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:59CGYRoman Horak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:53CGYAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Backlund10:22
xG 1.08–0.45 (70%)attempts 14–13goals 0–2
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Moss7:33
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Glencross – Bourque9:39
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Tanguay – Bourque2:06
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler16:14
xG 0.72–0.63 (53%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Smith – Brodie13:17
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Hannan – Giordano15:44
xG 0.60–1.02 (37%)attempts 15–26goals 1–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Carcillo – Kane10:01
xG 0.56–0.18 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Bickell – Frolik – Kruger8:21
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Mayers – Brunette – Olesz3:07
xG 0.08–0.37 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Hossa – Stalberg – Toews10:32
xG 0.53–0.99 (35%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook18:01
xG 0.93–0.51 (65%)attempts 27–12goals 2–1
- Hjalmarsson – Leddy16:31
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).