Fri, Nov 11, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vancouver Canucks 3, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 011 | 08 | 322 | 341 |
| ANA | 09 | 410 | 02 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:25ANASaku KoivuAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Snap, 0.29 xG0–1
- P2 12:45ANAAndrew CoglianoPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Jonas Hiller · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 15:23ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 17:22ANAPeter HollandGWGAssists: Toni Lydman · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 4:32VANKevin BieksaPPAssists: David Booth, Dan Hamhuis · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 9:12VANJannik HansenAssists: Daniel Sedin, Sami Salo · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 13:04VANJannik HansenAssists: Daniel Sedin, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:56ANAMatt Beleskey: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:00VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P1 13:12VANAaron Rome: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:22VANKeith Ballard: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:22ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:22ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:53ANALubomir Visnovsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:04VANAaron Rome: Elbowing5 min · PPG
- P2 11:04VANAaron Rome: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 3:10ANATeemu Selanne: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 19:01ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Hansen5:45
xG 0.90–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 2–0
- Malhotra – Hansen – Hodgson4:50
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Kesler5:18
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti5:47
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Edler10:31
xG 0.62–0.17 (78%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa10:08
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Ballard3:35
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Selanne – Koivu – Cogliano10:09
xG 0.39–0.43 (48%)attempts 2–11goals 1–0
- Gordon – Beleskey – Macenauer7:46
xG 0.20–0.36 (37%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- McMillan – Holland – Smith-Pelly4:23
xG 0.11–0.27 (29%)attempts 1–7goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan9:59
xG 0.31–0.67 (32%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky14:43
xG 0.94–0.47 (67%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler12:47
xG 0.48–0.69 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Brookbank – Sbisa11:25
xG 0.13–0.63 (17%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).