Sat, Nov 12, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Montréal Canadiens 2, Nashville Predators 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 07 | 09 | 11 | 225 |
| NSH | 04 | 113 | 08 | 01 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:49MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Erik Cole, Josh Gorges · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 3:20NSHShea WeberSHAssists: Ryan Suter, Nick Spaling · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 2:31MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:09NSHJerred Smithson: Holding2 min
- P1 16:18MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding2 min
- P2 2:01NSHMatt Halischuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:32MTLRaphael Diaz: Interference2 min
- P2 6:45MTLJaroslav Spacek: Holding2 min
- P2 10:54NSHJerred Smithson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:33MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00NSHJordin Tootoo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Desharnais – Pacioretty9:02
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Gionta – Moen – Plekanec10:49
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Gomez – Darche – Nokelainen6:08
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Palushaj – Eller9:02
xG 0.26–1.02 (20%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban12:00
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Spacek – Weber13:29
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Gill – Diaz12:37
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBergfors – Geoffrion – Spaling6:56
xG 0.54–0.10 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Wilson – Smith9:32
xG 0.82–0.48 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn9:56
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Halischuk9:50
xG 0.01–0.41 (2%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBlum – Hillen9:43
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber16:28
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein15:23
xG 0.34–0.68 (33%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).