Mon, Nov 14, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 013 | 210 | 03 | 2 | 332 |
| MTL | 010 | 210 | 04 | 03 | 1 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:58MTLErik ColePPAssists: P.K. Subban, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 14:17MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 0:53BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 12:30BUFDerek RoyAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
- 2. BUF Thomas Vanek scored
- 3. MTL Max Pacioretty scored
- 4. BUF Brad Boyes scored
- 5. MTL Brian Gionta stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:38BUFJordan Leopold: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:02MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:43BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:00MTLDavid Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:00BUFNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:20MTLJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P2 11:03MTLAaron Palushaj: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:58BUFPaul Gaustad: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:09BUFLuke Adam: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:02BUFPaul Gaustad: Cross checking2 min
- OT 0:19MTLErik Cole: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 2:49BUFThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Pominville – Vanek5:19
xG 0.34–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 2–0
- Boyes – McCormick – Ellis5:25
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Stafford – Leino – Adam5:45
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe11:02
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Gragnani4:54
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 2–0
- Leopold – Ehrhoff5:59
xG 0.07–0.01 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Weber10:01
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:29
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Darche – Nokelainen – Engqvist2:32
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gomez – Darche – Eller3:31
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gomez – Palushaj – Eller4:38
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Diaz7:02
xG 0.66–0.11 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Gorges – Weber3:42
xG 0.17–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Spacek – Weber6:41
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).