Tue, Nov 15, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 6, Dallas Stars 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 214 | 29 | 27 | 630 |
| DAL | 04 | 06 | 015 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:44FLADmitry KulikovGWGAssists: Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 18:08FLAJason GarrisonAssists: Mike Santorelli, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 15:02FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Stephen Weiss, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 19:52FLAStephen WeissAssists: Kris Versteeg, Tomas Fleischmann · Snap, 0.06 xG4–0
- P3 10:00FLAKris VersteegAssists: Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–0
- P3 13:19FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Marco Sturm, Mike Weaver · Deflected, 0.17 xG6–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:28DALSheldon Souray: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:49DALToby Petersen: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:38DALMark Fistric: Interference2 min
- P2 5:48DALKrys Barch: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:50FLASean Bergenheim: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:50DALBrenden Morrow: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:55FLASean Bergenheim: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:54FLAEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSturm – Santorelli – Dadonov7:24
xG 0.78–0.12 (87%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg9:49
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Bergenheim10:45
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison12:54
xG 1.03–0.29 (78%)attempts 25–9goals 2–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson11:36
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov10:26
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBarch – Petersen – Dowell5:53
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ryder2:50
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn10:16
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish8:54
xG 0.25–0.44 (37%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Robidas13:12
xG 0.95–0.29 (76%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
- Daley – Grossmann12:53
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Fistric – Pardy13:29
xG 0.17–0.81 (17%)attempts 6–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).