Tue, Nov 15, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 3, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 014 | 19 | 29 | 332 |
| CGY | 011 | 117 | 011 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:44OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 19:46CGYTom KostopoulosAssists: Matt Stajan · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 9:50OTTBobby ButlerGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 16:12OTTBobby ButlerAssists: Jesse Winchester, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:14CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:33OTTZack Smith: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:03CGYTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:03OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:17OTTJesse Winchester: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:13OTTErik Condra: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:29CGYRoman Horak: Holding2 min
- P2 8:56OTTBrian Lee: Interference2 min
- P3 0:39OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:02CGYScott Hannan: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:06CGYChris Butler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:09OTTZack Smith: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Foligno – Da Costa6:40
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Konopka – Winchester – Butler5:29
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Alfredsson – Foligno – Winchester2:01
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith7:48
xG 0.33–0.45 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson14:21
xG 0.63–0.57 (53%)attempts 16–19goals 2–0
- Gonchar – Lee2:01
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Lee – Cowen8:59
xG 0.16–0.19 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Glencross – Bourque10:04
xG 0.55–0.17 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan5:35
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – Backlund8:19
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
- Stempniak – Byron – Horak6:23
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Brodie9:06
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler14:14
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Hannan – Giordano12:18
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).