Thu, Nov 17, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 211 | 18 | 329 |
| NYI | 011 | 49 | 013 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:41NYIPA ParenteauUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:01NYIJay PandolfoAssists: Josh Bailey, Matt Martin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 9:08NYIMark StreitAssists: Matt Martin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 14:52MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Lars Eller · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 17:38MTLErik ColeAssists: Raphael Diaz, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–3
- P2 18:15NYIMatt MoulsonGWGAssists: John Tavares, Rick DiPietro · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 15:42MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:07MTLAaron Palushaj: Boarding2 min
- P1 2:59NYIMark Streit: Holding2 min
- P1 7:13NYISteve Staios: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:43MTLYannick Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 5:29MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min
- P3 10:49NYIMichael Grabner: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:02NYISteve Staios: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Moen2:00
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty6:09
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Darche – Nokelainen – Palushaj4:11
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Darche3:25
xG 0.02–0.07 (22%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Emelin – Diaz11:30
xG 0.70–0.69 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 1–2
- St-Denis – Weber11:36
xG 0.34–0.66 (34%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban19:06
xG 0.79–1.53 (34%)attempts 18–19goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Grabner – Tavares11:40
xG 1.41–0.23 (86%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Rolston – Parenteau – Nielsen11:47
xG 0.51–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Bailey – Martin8:15
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Reasoner – Comeau – Niederreiter6:26
xG 0.17–0.51 (25%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic15:19
xG 1.19–0.33 (78%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Streit – Hamonic2:21
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Staios – Streit12:40
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).