Thu, Nov 17, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Florida Panthers 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 16 | 010 | 05 | 121 |
| STL | 16 | 114 | 211 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:04STLDavid BackesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:07FLAMike SantorelliUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 5:48STLChris PorterGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 9:46STLKris RussellAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Jamie Langenbrunner · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 18:10STLDavid BackesENUnassisted · Slap, 0.54 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:09STLKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min
- P1 19:44STLScott Nichol: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 19:44STLScott Nichol: Spearing5 min
- P1 19:44FLASean Bergenheim: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:32FLAKris Versteeg: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:32STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:33STLMatt D'Agostini: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:13FLATomas Kopecky: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:12FLADmitry Kulikov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:05FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Skille – Kennedy – Matthias4:17
xG 0.04–0.06 (42%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg12:06
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Bergenheim – Santorelli2:31
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sturm – Santorelli – Dadonov6:28
xG 0.04–0.16 (21%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov8:30
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Jovanovski – Kulikov3:00
xG 0.08–0.11 (40%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Campbell – Garrison13:48
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Sobotka – Berglund2:33
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie10:00
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Arnott – Porter – D'Agostini2:07
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- D'Agostini – Berglund – Grachev5:21
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak3:19
xG 0.59–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk5:57
xG 0.29–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo7:09
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).