Sat, Nov 19, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Detroit Red Wings 4, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 113 | 217 | 18 | 438 |
| LAK | 18 | 07 | 09 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:37LAKMike RichardsSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 7:14DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 7:08DETNiklas KronwallPPGWGAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Johan Franzen · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 15:38DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Brendan Smith, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 15:06DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Johan Franzen · Snap, 0.12 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:29LAKJustin Williams: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:40DETTodd Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:53LAKAndrei Loktionov: Interference2 min
- P2 1:47DETPavel Datsyuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:09LAKRob Scuderi: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:31DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:54LAKMike Richards: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:44LAKDustin Brown: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:34DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:07DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen10:13
xG 0.72–0.12 (86%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Emmerton4:25
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hudler – Abdelkader – Helm5:06
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Abdelkader – Helm2:09
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Ericsson11:26
xG 0.94–0.15 (86%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson2:03
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Smith8:31
xG 0.20–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Brown – Richards2:47
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stoll – Richardson – Clifford3:29
xG 0.07–0.04 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gagne – Williams – Kopitar6:34
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Moreau – Fraser – Lewis5:25
xG 0.02–0.07 (26%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty3:07
xG 0.13–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Voynov3:11
xG 0.04–0.20 (18%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Scuderi – Greene9:10
xG 0.13–0.48 (22%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).