Sat, Nov 19, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 18 | 215 | 16 | 429 |
| BUF | 116 | 114 | 015 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:09PHXShane DoanAssists: Keith Yandle, Derek Morris · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 11:57BUFLuke AdamAssists: Jordan Leopold, Nathan Gerbe · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 0:51BUFPatrick KaletaAssists: Paul Gaustad, Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
- P2 8:35PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Rostislav Klesla, David Schlemko · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 9:41PHXPaul BissonnetteGWGAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Adrian Aucoin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 18:49PHXRadim VrbataENAssists: Keith Yandle, Derek Morris · Slap, 0.63 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 17:55BUFPatrick Kaleta: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:06PHXRaffi Torres: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:06BUFRobyn Regehr: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:06PHXRaffi Torres: Charging2 min
- P3 7:57BUFAndrej Sekera: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Boyes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestTorres – Bissonnette – Chipchura5:33
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Korpikoski – O'Reilly – Boedker10:14
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Vrbata – Hanzal12:41
xG 0.55–0.71 (44%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Whitney – Doan – Gordon13:37
xG 0.07–0.85 (8%)attempts 10–21goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Ekman-Larsson17:54
xG 0.97–0.67 (59%)attempts 25–16goals 1–1
- Morris – Yandle17:50
xG 0.26–1.01 (20%)attempts 15–22goals 1–0
- Klesla – Schlemko13:47
xG 0.28–1.52 (15%)attempts 15–26goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Pominville – Vanek11:26
xG 1.28–0.42 (75%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Boyes – Stafford – Leino13:57
xG 0.66–0.14 (82%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Ellis – Kaleta11:00
xG 0.77–0.43 (64%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Tropp – Adam9:48
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Ehrhoff17:24
xG 1.79–0.41 (81%)attempts 31–24goals 2–2
- Leopold – Gragnani4:16
xG 0.40–0.09 (81%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Sekera2:46
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).