Sat, Nov 19, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 310 | 14 | 424 |
| TBL | 03 | 010 | 210 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:09NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Ryan Carter · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 6:05NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: David Clarkson, Adam Larsson · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 17:44NJDDavid ClarksonPPGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.31 xG3–0
- P3 8:24TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Ryan Shannon, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 9:54TBLRyan ShannonAssists: Steve Downie, Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 17:57NJDRyan CarterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 13:25TBLDominic Moore: Interference2 min
- P1 17:54TBLAdam Hall: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:08NJDPatrik Elias: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:51NJDAnton Volchenkov: Interference2 min
- P2 4:39TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:24TBLTeddy Purcell: Interference2 min
- P2 8:53TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 14:34NJDMark Fayne: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:29TBLPavel Kubina: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:37NJDRyan Carter: Holding2 min
- P3 3:32NJDBryce Salvador: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:10NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:53TBLVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:52TBLMatt Gilroy: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pyatt won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Janssen – Mills – Tedenby2:38
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus8:51
xG 0.04–0.08 (31%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Carter – Palmieri7:31
xG 0.04–0.09 (29%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique9:01
xG 0.06–0.23 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tallinder – Fayne13:38
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Salvador – Volchenkov10:05
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson12:53
xG 0.06–0.31 (16%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Shannon – Downie3:19
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 2–1
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos5:55
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Moore – Stamkos – Connolly2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Malone – Downie – Connolly2:03
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Hedman7:20
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kubina – Bergeron6:57
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Brewer – Gilroy8:49
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).