Sat, Nov 19, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 117 | 017 | 241 |
| FLA | 110 | 111 | 110 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09PITChris KunitzAssists: Pascal Dupuis · Tip-in, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 7:28FLABrian CampbellAssists: Kris Versteeg, Stephen Weiss · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 5:48FLATomas FleischmannPPAssists: Stephen Weiss, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 12:38PITJordan StaalAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 16:30FLAStephen WeissPPGWGAssists: Kris Versteeg, Tomas Fleischmann · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:16PITRichard Park: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:41PITPaul Martin: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:33PITChris Kunitz: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:34FLAJason Garrison: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:48FLAJason Garrison: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:55PITEvgeni Malkin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Neal3:55
xG 0.65–0.05 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Cooke – Dupuis – Staal5:13
xG 0.26–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Staal6:00
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Cooke – Kennedy – Vitale4:08
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Engelland14:33
xG 0.84–0.46 (65%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Picard – Niskanen11:07
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Orpik – Letang15:13
xG 0.28–0.67 (29%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSturm – Santorelli – Dadonov7:20
xG 0.21–0.08 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Matthias – Repik7:07
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Bergenheim – Skille7:16
xG 0.25–0.42 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg16:31
xG 0.54–0.99 (35%)attempts 10–26goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison17:57
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov13:50
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Jovanovski – Ellerby9:56
xG 0.17–0.34 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).