Sat, Nov 19, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 4, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 218 | 110 | 438 |
| DAL | 014 | 07 | 110 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 1:23SJSLogan CouturePPGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 4:52SJSBrad WinchesterAssists: Andrew Desjardins · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 4:34SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Michal Handzus, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–0
- P3 6:22DALMike RibeiroAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
Penalties (25)
- P1 4:29DALNicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:14SJSDouglas Murray: Delaying game2 min
- P1 14:55DALToby Petersen: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:55DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:13SJSJim Vandermeer: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:13DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:15SJSJamie McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:15DALEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:09SJSMartin Havlat: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:09DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:18SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:18DALSteve Ott: Diving2 min
- P2 10:18SJSRyane Clowe: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:18DALVernon Fiddler: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:56DALMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:44SJSBrad Winchester: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:08DALSteve Ott: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:08SJSDan Boyle: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:16DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:16SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:16DALKrys Barch: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:31SJSAndrew Murray: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:48DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:48SJSTorrey Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:48DALJamie Benn: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWinchester – Murray – Desjardins8:23
xG 0.61–0.06 (92%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Mitchell5:50
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Couture8:31
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Havlat – Clowe3:00
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Demers2:22
xG 0.38–0.14 (72%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Burns – Vlasic12:39
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Demers9:53
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBarch – Petersen – Wandell4:51
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom7:42
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ryder2:04
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Ryder – Ott – Benn10:26
xG 0.20–0.35 (36%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Grossmann14:41
xG 0.60–0.46 (57%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas14:45
xG 0.28–0.69 (29%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Fistric – Pardy12:54
xG 0.37–0.83 (31%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).