Sun, Nov 20, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Detroit Red Wings 4, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 212 | 19 | 430 |
| ANA | 06 | 213 | 015 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Jiri Hudler, Brendan Smith · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 0:14DETJohan FranzenAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 7:10DETBrad StuartGWGAssists: Johan Franzen, Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 11:24ANASaku KoivuAssists: Cam Fowler, Andrew Cogliano · Slap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 16:21ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–2
- P3 19:12DETBrad StuartENAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.53 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:22ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Interference2 min
- P1 7:11ANABrandon McMillan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:27DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:54ANATeemu Selanne: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:22ANABrandon McMillan: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:55DETCory Emmerton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:59DETBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 19:16ANADevante Smith-Pelly: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:06ANARyan Getzlaf: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:14DETJustin Abdelkader: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:26DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Miller – Emmerton5:16
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen7:58
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Cleary – Zetterberg – Filppula9:19
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Abdelkader – Helm5:39
xG 0.05–0.09 (38%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Kindl9:04
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Smith7:42
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall3:23
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Cogliano8:00
xG 0.48–0.07 (88%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Hagman – Maxwell – Smith-Pelly3:19
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Gordon – Maxwell – McMillan2:28
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gordon – Macenauer – McMillan2:34
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler11:24
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
- Foster – Fowler3:18
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Brookbank – Sbisa8:40
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).