Sun, Nov 20, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 1, Vancouver Canucks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 08 | 111 | 02 | 129 |
| VAN | 08 | 16 | 010 | 13 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:31VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Ryan Kesler · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 3:32OTTColin GreeningAssists: Jason Spezza, Sergei Gonchar · Deflected, 0.34 xG1–1
- OT 2:18VANChris HigginsGWGAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Sami Salo · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:31OTTColin Greening: Interference2 min
- P1 5:09OTTStephane Da Costa: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:18VANAndrew Alberts: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:44OTTSergei Gonchar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:40VANAndrew Alberts: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:56VANKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:28VANAaron Volpatti: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:46OTTSergei Gonchar: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:46VANKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Greening – Butler3:40
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening7:18
xG 0.49–0.07 (87%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Foligno – Da Costa4:17
xG 0.06–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Konopka – Winchester – Butler3:24
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson12:02
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Lee – Cowen10:25
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips11:18
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Hansen8:52
xG 0.22–0.10 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Booth – Hodgson4:19
xG 0.01–0.04 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Weise – Volpatti4:55
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Kesler10:24
xG 0.25–0.99 (20%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Edler11:16
xG 1.09–0.11 (91%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Edler3:14
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Salo – Alberts2:29
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).