Mon, Nov 21, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 3, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 313 | 09 | 03 | 325 |
| FLA | 010 | 215 | 211 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:17NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:26NJDPetr SykoraAssists: Adam Larsson, Andy Greene · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–0
- P1 11:49NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Patrik Elias, Martin Brodeur · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 5:28FLAKris VersteegAssists: Stephen Weiss, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 10:40FLAKris VersteegAssists: Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 9:12FLAStephen WeissSHAssists: Jason Garrison, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–3
- P3 17:57FLATomas FleischmannGWGAssists: Stephen Weiss, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:38NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:44NJDBryce Salvador: Interference2 min
- P2 2:24FLAShawn Matthias: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:24NJDRod Pelley: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:49FLAStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:42NJDAndy Greene: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:20NJDHenrik Tallinder: Delaying game2 min
- P3 8:25FLATomas Fleischmann: Holding2 min
- P3 9:00FLAJack Skille: Interference2 min
- P3 13:22NJDBryce Salvador: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSykora – Elias – Zubrus10:42
xG 0.98–0.22 (82%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Janssen – Pelley – Mills2:44
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique11:51
xG 0.41–0.65 (39%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Clarkson – Carter – Tedenby6:02
xG 0.02–0.64 (4%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Fayne3:41
xG 0.27–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Salvador – Greene2:42
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Greene – Larsson9:32
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg12:54
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 3–0
- Kennedy – Matthias – Repik5:16
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Bergenheim – Matthias2:32
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sturm – Santorelli – Skille8:10
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Ellerby2:15
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov2:45
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Weaver – Kulikov12:00
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).