Wed, Nov 23, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 08 | 18 | 225 |
| MIN | 010 | 012 | 38 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21NSHJordin TootooAssists: Craig Smith, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 1:05MINDany HeatleyAssists: Mikko Koivu, Devin Setoguchi · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 9:39MINKyle BrodziakPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Marco Scandella · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 13:19MINCal ClutterbuckSHGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 13:57NSHRyan SuterPPAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:55NSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:22MINCal Clutterbuck: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:12MINColton Gillies: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:38NSHFrancis Bouillon: Interference2 min
- P2 6:56MINMatt Cullen: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:04NSHColin Wilson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:43MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:29NSHCraig Smith: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:12NSHRyan Suter: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:20MINNick Johnson: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:36MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:36MINCal Clutterbuck: Elbowing2 min
- P3 13:36NSHPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Spaling – Smith6:41
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn10:02
xG 0.12–0.26 (32%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson6:34
xG 0.04–0.24 (13%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Klein10:23
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Blum – Hillen8:11
xG 0.09–0.20 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber13:26
xG 0.13–0.46 (21%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Setoguchi9:47
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Brodziak – Johnson – Powe9:25
xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Peters – Staubitz – Gillies3:29
xG 0.02–0.02 (52%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Bouchard – Clutterbuck9:10
xG 0.07–0.20 (26%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon11:14
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Falk – Prosser11:28
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Schultz – Stoner14:10
xG 0.22–0.23 (50%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).