Wed, Nov 23, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 3, Colorado Avalanche 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 116 | 16 | 17 | 329 |
| COL | 06 | 08 | 010 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:03VANManny MalhotraGWGAssists: Cody Hodgson, Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 7:33VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 19:30VANRyan KeslerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:52COLShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
- P2 0:14VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:38COLJoakim Lindstrom: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:43COLRyan Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:54VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:05VANSami Salo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:41VANDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows10:12
xG 0.43–0.14 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Hansen – Hodgson7:16
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti5:30
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Booth8:22
xG 0.21–0.56 (28%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Edler2:59
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Alberts2:57
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa10:46
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLindstrom – Duchene – Landeskog8:37
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Porter – Winnik – O'Reilly6:43
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McClement – Galiardi4:25
xG 0.04–0.11 (24%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Jones – Stastny11:05
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Wilson2:18
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hejda – Wilson11:20
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- O'Byrne – Hunwick10:57
xG 0.24–0.28 (47%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).