Fri, Nov 25, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 05 | 011 | 124 |
| PHI | 05 | 318 | 013 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:14MTLPetteri NokelainenAssists: Hal Gill, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 13:11PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 17:45PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 19:54PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Braydon Coburn, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:13MTLLars Eller: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:46PHIAndreas Lilja: Interference2 min
- P1 15:52PHIMax Talbot: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:04MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:22PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:48PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:27PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:33MTLTomas Plekanec: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:52MTLDavid Desharnais: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Cammalleri – Plekanec4:17
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Moen – Nokelainen – Palushaj2:23
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Darche – Moen – Eller5:48
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gionta – Desharnais – Pacioretty5:19
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gill – Emelin2:17
xG 0.02–0.06 (28%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gill – Weber8:09
xG 0.08–0.18 (29%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Emelin – Diaz9:30
xG 0.18–0.70 (20%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestShelley – Zolnierczyk – Couturier4:09
xG 0.74–0.03 (96%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Talbot – Simmonds – Couturier2:25
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brière – Nodl – Read7:26
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek10:53
xG 0.51–0.63 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLilja – Carle4:38
xG 0.86–0.03 (97%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Meszaros – Bourdon4:15
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros5:24
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).