Fri, Nov 25, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 111 | 17 | 327 |
| PIT | 412 | 115 | 113 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:19OTTKaspars DaugavinsAssists: Erik Karlsson, Erik Condra · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 1:46PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 3:25PITTyler KennedyAssists: Paul Martin, Marc-Andre Fleury · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 7:21PITSteve SullivanPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P1 9:11PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–4
- P2 3:45PITPascal DupuisAssists: Arron Asham, Tyler Kennedy · Snap, 0.16 xG1–5
- P2 15:46OTTJared CowenAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 8:41PITJordan StaalAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Paul Martin · Snap, 0.07 xG2–6
- P3 16:29OTTErik CondraAssists: Nick Foligno, Brian Lee · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:48OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:48PITArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:34OTTBobby Butler: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 7:04OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:25OTTFilip Kuba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:46PITPaul Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:22OTTJesse Winchester: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:19PITArron Asham: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:44PITSidney Crosby: Elbowing2 min
- P3 2:44OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:46PITJoe Vitale: Interference2 min
- P3 8:13OTTSergei Gonchar: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:59PITJames Neal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Spezza – Michalek2:38
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith7:27
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Alfredsson – Foligno – Winchester4:06
xG 0.07–0.27 (22%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening7:20
xG 0.04–0.50 (8%)attempts 4–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Phillips – Karlsson2:24
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson12:06
xG 0.38–0.58 (40%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Lee – Cowen7:59
xG 0.10–0.48 (17%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Neal3:04
xG 0.31–0.04 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal2:54
xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby2:11
xG 0.13–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Cooke – Dupuis – Kennedy2:22
xG 0.03–0.03 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek9:20
xG 0.54–0.04 (93%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Martin – Niskanen3:32
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Engelland – Niskanen9:25
xG 0.55–0.20 (74%)attempts 14–6goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).