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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 25, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh

Ottawa Senators 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 92% of the time.

PIT winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:39Shot by Michalek, saved by Fleury
  3. P1 1:19Goal by Daugavins (Karlsson, Condra)+13 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Sullivan, Orpik, Malkin, Neal, Letang · OTT Kuba, Daugavins, Condra, Smith, Karlsson

  4. P1 1:46Goal by Kunitz (Crosby, Engelland)+13 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Dupuis, Engelland, Kunitz, Crosby, Niskanen · OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Phillips, Foligno, Da Costa

  5. P1 1:48Konopka: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: PIT Asham, Adams, Engelland, Niskanen, Vitale · OTT Konopka, Lee, Winchester, Cowen, Butler

  6. P1 1:48Asham: Fighting (5 min)5v4

    On ice: PIT Asham, Adams, Engelland, Niskanen, Vitale · OTT Konopka, Lee, Winchester, Cowen, Butler

  7. P1 2:50Shot by Staal, saved by Anderson
  8. P1 3:23Shot by Kennedy, saved by Anderson
  9. P1 3:25Goal by Kennedy (Martin, Fleury)+16 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Cooke, Martin, Michalek, Kennedy, Staal · OTT Kuba, Spezza, Michalek, Greening, Karlsson

  10. P1 4:55Shot by Dupuis, saved by Anderson
  11. P1 5:27Shot by Daugavins, saved by Fleury
  12. P1 5:34Butler: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Adams, Dupuis, Martin, Michalek, Vitale · OTT Alfredsson, Lee, Winchester, Cowen, Butler

  13. P1 5:52Shot by Kuba, saved by Fleury5v4
  14. P1 7:04Smith: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: PIT Martin, Malkin, Crosby, Neal, Letang · OTT Gonchar, Phillips, Condra, Smith

  15. P1 7:21Goal by Sullivan (Malkin, Crosby)5v3+11 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Sullivan, Kunitz, Malkin, Crosby, Neal · OTT Kuba, Phillips, Winchester

  16. P1 8:19Shot by Kunitz, saved by Anderson5v4
  17. P1 9:11Goal by Malkin (Letang, Crosby)+7 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Sullivan, Malkin, Crosby, Neal, Letang · OTT Phillips, Michalek, Lee, Condra, Smith

  18. P1 11:01Shot by Michalek, saved by Fleury
  19. P1 11:59Shot by Daugavins, saved by Fleury
  20. P1 12:26Shot by Malkin, saved by Auld
  21. P1 12:44Shot by Winchester, saved by Fleury
  22. P1 13:05Shot by Karlsson, saved by Fleury
  23. P1 13:25Kuba: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Adams, Engelland, Crosby, Niskanen, Vitale · OTT Kuba, Daugavins, Condra, Smith, Karlsson

  24. P1 13:49Shot by Letang, saved by Auld5v4
  25. P1 15:48Shot by Kennedy, saved by Auld
  26. P1 16:57Shot by Michalek, saved by Fleury
  27. P1 17:09Shot by Vitale, saved by Auld
  28. P1 19:46Martin: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Cooke, Martin, Kennedy, Niskanen, Staal · OTT Kuba, Konopka, Condra, Winchester, Karlsson

  29. P1 0:00Period end
  30. P2 0:00Period start
  31. P2 0:12Shot by Spezza, saved by Fleury4v5
  32. P2 1:49Shot by Staal, saved by Auld
  33. P2 2:52Shot by Vitale, saved by Auld
  34. P2 3:45Goal by Dupuis (Asham, Kennedy)+3 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Asham, Dupuis, Engelland, Kennedy, Niskanen · OTT Konopka, Lee, Winchester, Cowen, Butler

  35. P2 4:44Shot by Phillips, saved by Fleury
  36. P2 5:02Shot by Orpik, saved by Auld
  37. P2 5:32Shot by Kuba, saved by Fleury
  38. P2 6:02Shot by Karlsson, saved by Fleury
  39. P2 6:24Shot by Neal, saved by Auld
  40. P2 6:46Shot by Sullivan, saved by Auld
  41. P2 7:45Shot by Malkin, saved by Auld
  42. P2 8:08Shot by Spezza, saved by Fleury
  43. P2 9:54Shot by Kunitz, saved by Auld
  44. P2 10:01Shot by Sullivan, saved by Auld
  45. P2 11:22Winchester: Tripping (2 min)6v5

    On ice: PIT Cooke, Orpik, Malkin, Crosby, Letang, Staal · OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Phillips, Foligno, Winchester

  46. P2 11:58Shot by Letang, saved by Auld5v4
  47. P2 12:55Shot by Malkin, saved by Auld5v4
  48. P2 13:25Shot by Kennedy, saved by Auld
  49. P2 14:23Shot by Dupuis, saved by Auld
  50. P2 14:35Shot by Niskanen, saved by Auld
  51. P2 15:08Shot by Foligno, saved by Fleury
  52. P2 15:22Shot by Da Costa, saved by Fleury
  53. P2 15:46Goal by Cowen (Alfredsson, Foligno)5v6+2 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Asham, Michalek, Kennedy, Niskanen, Vitale · OTT Alfredsson, Michalek, Foligno, Cowen, Butler, Da Costa

  54. P2 16:17Shot by Neal, saved by Auld
  55. P2 16:40Shot by Condra, saved by Fleury
  56. P2 17:19Asham: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Asham, Adams, Orpik, Letang, Vitale · OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Phillips, Konopka, Winchester

  57. P2 18:00Shot by Gonchar, saved by Fleury4v5
  58. P2 18:35Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Fleury4v5
  59. P2 0:00Period end
  60. P3 0:00Period start
  61. P3 1:14Shot by Condra, saved by Fleury
  62. P3 2:06Shot by Neal, saved by Auld
  63. P3 2:44Crosby: Elbowing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Orpik, Kunitz, Crosby, Neal, Letang · OTT Gonchar, Phillips, Foligno, Butler, Da Costa

  64. P3 2:44Foligno: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: PIT Orpik, Kunitz, Crosby, Neal, Letang · OTT Gonchar, Phillips, Foligno, Butler, Da Costa

  65. P3 2:57Shot by Dupuis, saved by Auld4v4
  66. P3 4:16Shot by Malkin, saved by Auld4v4
  67. P3 4:26Shot by Gonchar, saved by Fleury4v4
  68. P3 4:29Shot by Winchester, saved by Fleury4v4
  69. P3 4:44Shot by Engelland, saved by Auld5v4
  70. P3 6:46Vitale: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Asham, Orpik, Kennedy, Letang, Vitale · OTT Alfredsson, Foligno, Winchester, Karlsson, Cowen

  71. P3 7:27Shot by Gonchar, saved by Fleury4v5
  72. P3 8:10Shot by Adams, saved by Auld4v5
  73. P3 8:13Gonchar: Slashing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: PIT Adams, Dupuis, Martin, Letang · OTT Gonchar, Spezza, Michalek, Greening, Karlsson

  74. P3 8:41Goal by Staal (Kennedy, Martin)4v4+1 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Martin, Kennedy, Niskanen, Staal · OTT Alfredsson, Kuba, Foligno, Cowen

  75. P3 9:05Shot by Crosby, saved by Auld5v4
  76. P3 9:48Shot by Crosby, saved by Auld5v4
  77. P3 9:55Shot by Kennedy, saved by Auld5v4
  78. P3 10:43Shot by Spezza, saved by Fleury
  79. P3 11:00Shot by Spezza, saved by Fleury
  80. P3 13:46Shot by Neal, saved by Auld
  81. P3 13:59Neal: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)5v6

    On ice: PIT Engelland, Kunitz, Crosby, Niskanen, Neal · OTT Kuba, Daugavins, Condra, Smith, Karlsson, Butler

  82. P3 15:43Shot by Cooke, saved by Auld4v5
  83. P3 16:11Shot by Neal, saved by Auld
  84. P3 16:29Goal by Condra (Foligno, Lee)0 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Dupuis, Engelland, Crosby, Niskanen, Neal · OTT Lee, Daugavins, Condra, Smith, Cowen

  85. P3 18:16Shot by Dupuis, saved by Auld
  86. P3 0:00Period end
  87. P3 0:00Final