Sat, Nov 26, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 1, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 18 | 012 | 127 |
| BUF | 212 | 19 | 27 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:47BUFLuke AdamAssists: Paul Szczechura · Slap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 15:23BUFJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek, Christian Ehrhoff · Slap, 0.43 xG0–2
- P2 6:39WSHJason ChimeraUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–2
- P2 7:06BUFZack KassianAssists: Andrej Sekera, Derek Roy · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 1:12BUFLuke AdamAssists: Paul Szczechura, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 14:39BUFJochen HechtSHAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:21WSHJeff Schultz: Holding2 min
- P2 3:42BUFAndrej Sekera: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:00BUFPaul Gaustad: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:28WSHNicklas Backstrom: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:38BUFVille Leino: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:38WSHAlexander Semin: Diving2 min
- P3 13:36BUFZack Kassian: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:50BUFDerek Roy: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hecht won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Ovechkin – Backstrom4:48
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Knuble – Semin – Johansson6:06
xG 0.13–0.05 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Brouwer – Johansson3:25
xG 0.03–0.06 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Halpern – Hendricks – Perreault5:15
xG 0.02–0.07 (23%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Schultz10:06
xG 0.34–0.12 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Alzner – Carlson14:48
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Schultz – Orlov4:45
xG 0.07–0.01 (85%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSzczechura – Leino – Adam8:18
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek11:55
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Roy – Gerbe – Kassian10:00
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Ellis – Tropp8:44
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Sekera13:34
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Ehrhoff – Gragnani14:38
xG 0.76–0.51 (60%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – McNabb2:01
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).