Mon, Nov 28, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 012 | 215 | 335 |
| COL | 011 | 016 | 19 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:56DALEric NystromAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P3 14:36DALMichael RyderGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Philip Larsen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 16:24COLKevin PorterAssists: David Jones, Stefan Elliott · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 19:32DALMichael RyderENAssists: Loui Eriksson, Adam Pardy · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:49DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:49COLCody McLeod: Instigator2 min
- P1 2:49COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:49COLCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
- P1 3:49DALSheldon Souray: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:30DALTom Wandell: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:49COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:45DALMichael Ryder: Holding2 min
- P2 5:33COLRyan Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:10COLRyan O'Reilly: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom9:32
xG 0.60–0.29 (67%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn11:06
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Barch – Petersen – Wandell4:36
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Ott – Vincour11:55
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Robidas14:45
xG 0.76–0.13 (85%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Fistric – Larsen13:39
xG 0.36–0.43 (45%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Grossmann – Pardy15:50
xG 0.28–1.16 (20%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Hejduk – Stastny – Duchene10:41
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Jones – McLeod – Galiardi3:00
xG 0.03–0.06 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McClement – Porter8:04
xG 0.22–0.29 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Winnik – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:29
xG 0.12–0.33 (26%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – O'Brien15:07
xG 1.01–0.45 (69%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda14:24
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Wilson – Elliott14:50
xG 0.38–0.84 (31%)attempts 17–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).