Tue, Nov 29, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 012 | 112 | 230 |
| BUF | 08 | 08 | 115 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:47NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Mark Streit, PA Parenteau · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 1:54BUFJochen HechtAssists: Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 9:23NYIBrian RolstonGWGAssists: David Ullstrom, Josh Bailey · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:39BUFPaul Szczechura: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:52NYIMike Mottau: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:27BUFZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:27NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:27NYINino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
- P1 16:17BUFJason Pominville: Holding2 min
- P2 18:21BUFZack Kassian: Interference2 min
- P3 10:42NYIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:08NYIJosh Bailey: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Bailey – Ullstrom8:27
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:27
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner11:26
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Martin – Niederreiter5:46
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Streit12:25
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Mottau – Jurcina10:40
xG 0.28–0.08 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic14:38
xG 0.69–0.63 (52%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gaustad – Ellis – Stafford3:41
xG 0.11–0.08 (60%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Ellis – Kassian3:07
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Roy – Stafford – Gerbe4:58
xG 0.06–0.13 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Roy – Gerbe – Kassian6:03
xG 0.05–0.18 (22%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Gragnani2:02
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Leopold – Sekera4:12
xG 0.12–0.08 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Sekera – McNabb7:00
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).