Tue, Nov 29, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 6, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 112 | 28 | 314 | 634 |
| WPG | 014 | 213 | 216 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:55OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 7:06WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 15:07WPGAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Tanner Glass, Eric Fehr · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 15:42OTTZack SmithAssists: Erik Condra · Slap, 0.34 xG2–2
- P2 19:16OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Chris Phillips, Erik Condra · Snap, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 1:24WPGEvander KaneAssists: Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.42 xG3–3
- P3 2:41WPGEvander KanePPAssists: Mark Flood, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
- P3 9:35OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Erik Karlsson, Chris Phillips · Snap, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 13:45OTTZack SmithPPGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Kaspars Daugavins · Snap, 0.09 xG5–4
- P3 18:52OTTNick FolignoENAssists: Jesse Winchester, Colin Greening · Backhand, 0.73 xG6–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:13OTTJason Spezza: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:34WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:49OTTZenon Konopka: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:09OTTErik Condra: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:05WPGJohnny Oduya: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:53OTTNick Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:07WPGTanner Glass: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:34OTTBobby Butler: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:05WPGJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:52WPGBlake Wheeler: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:52OTTKaspars Daugavins: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKonopka – Winchester – Butler3:20
xG 0.49–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith9:06
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Foligno7:14
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Spezza – Greening – Filatov3:17
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Karlsson6:31
xG 0.97–0.35 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Rundblad2:24
xG 0.19–0.15 (57%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Cowen2:56
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Glass – Burmistrov8:49
xG 0.76–0.43 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Wheeler – Little – Kane9:14
xG 0.96–0.79 (55%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Slater – Wheeler – Kane2:08
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Ladd6:56
xG 0.56–0.61 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Bogosian13:28
xG 0.88–0.37 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Flood – Kulda7:34
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Oduya – Flood2:02
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).