Tue, Nov 29, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 18 | 110 | 26 | 424 |
| CHI | 07 | 08 | 110 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:53PHXDaymond LangkowAssists: Ray Whitney, Shane Doan · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 9:54PHXShane DoanGWGAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Daymond Langkow · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 1:12PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Ray Whitney · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 5:02PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata · Snap, 0.13 xG4–0
- P3 19:17CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa · Snap, 0.19 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 13:47CHISean O'Donnell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:37CHIDaniel Carcillo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:37PHXDaymond Langkow: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:45CHIDaniel Carcillo: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:11PHXRostislav Klesla: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kane won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal13:20
xG 0.85–0.26 (77%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Langkow – Doan – Boedker12:01
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski14:12
xG 0.07–0.39 (16%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Torres – O'Sullivan – Chipchura7:56
xG 0.01–0.83 (1%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Schlemko14:28
xG 0.64–0.22 (74%)attempts 10–11goals 3–0
- Morris – Yandle13:35
xG 0.52–0.93 (36%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson19:35
xG 0.11–0.57 (17%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMayers – Bickell – Frolik5:35
xG 0.09–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hossa – Carcillo – Kane9:41
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Sharp – Stalberg – Toews10:52
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Brunette – Bolland – Kruger7:58
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Montador12:23
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Leddy16:06
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Keith – Seabrook19:04
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).