Wed, Nov 30, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Montréal Canadiens 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 010 | 03 | 120 |
| ANA | 17 | 111 | 29 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:10MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 19:41ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:06ANADevante Smith-PellyPPGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P3 2:55ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Ryan Getzlaf · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 18:31ANANiklas HagmanENAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.69 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 13:00ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Interference2 min
- P1 14:55ANADevante Smith-Pelly: Holding2 min
- P1 16:46ANASheldon Brookbank: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 3:09MTLFrédéric St-Denis: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:40MTLTomas Plekanec: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 9:59ANATeemu Selanne: Interference2 min
- P2 16:39ANANiklas Hagman: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:51MTLRaphael Diaz: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:13ANABobby Ryan: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:30MTLTravis Moen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:59MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:48MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:06ANAToni Lydman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Maxwell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Eller – Leblanc6:24
xG 0.50–0.10 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Cammalleri – Desharnais6:42
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Kostitsyn7:40
xG 0.45–0.51 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Diaz7:32
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban8:06
xG 0.42–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Emelin – St-Denis8:39
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Macenauer – Smith-Pelly2:57
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey8:16
xG 0.56–0.53 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Hagman – Ryan – Maxwell6:31
xG 0.03–0.15 (16%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Cogliano8:48
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Beauchemin2:22
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lydman – Sbisa8:06
xG 0.33–0.17 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Guenin5:50
xG 0.06–0.24 (19%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).