Thu, Dec 1, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Ottawa Senators 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 04 | 118 | 235 |
| DAL | 19 | 04 | 219 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:07OTTErik CondraAssists: Jared Cowen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:38DALSteve OttPPAssists: Toby Petersen, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 11:42OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 14:26DALRadek DvorakAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Tomas Vincour · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 17:40DALEric NystromGWGAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Radek Dvorak · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:58OTTErik Condra: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:08OTTNick Foligno: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:37DALMark Fistric: Interference2 min
- P2 11:56OTTZenon Konopka: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Konopka – Winchester – Butler4:59
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Michalek3:48
xG 0.02–0.07 (21%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Filatov10:57
xG 0.28–0.38 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Foligno9:20
xG 0.20–0.44 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Karlsson18:10
xG 0.60–0.52 (53%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Lee – Rundblad6:20
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Rundblad2:18
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Ott – Vincour12:55
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Barch – Petersen – Wandell6:00
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom12:34
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn13:23
xG 0.68–0.62 (52%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Larsen12:29
xG 0.65–0.21 (76%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Grossmann – Pardy15:14
xG 0.42–0.18 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Souray – Pardy2:13
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).