Thu, Dec 1, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Calgary Flames 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 115 | 03 | 213 | 02 | 1 | 433 |
| CGY | 15 | 115 | 110 | 05 | 0 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:23CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Nikita Nikitin, Samuel Pahlsson · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 13:02CGYLee StempniakAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 19:41CGYRene BourqueAssists: Alex Tanguay, Chris Butler · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 5:48CGYBlake ComeauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 15:55CBJNikita NikitinAssists: Vinny Prospal, Derek MacKenzie · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:02CBJRick NashAssists: Nikita Nikitin, James Wisniewski · Deflected, 0.19 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Jeff Carter stopped
- 2. CGY Alex Tanguay stopped
- 3. CBJ Fedor Tyutin stopped
- 4. CGY Lee Stempniak stopped
- 5. CBJ Rick Nash scored
- 6. CGY Rene Bourque stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:24CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:24CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:48CGYCory Sarich: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:18CBJRick Nash: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:18CGYChris Butler: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:35CBJMarc Methot: Interference2 min
- P2 13:11CGYScott Hannan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:30CGYBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:20CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestPahlsson – Vermette – Dorsett9:25
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Umberger – Letestu – Johansen4:33
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Umberger – Carter – Dorsett2:42
xG 0.01–0.02 (44%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Letestu – Johansen3:00
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin16:58
xG 1.03–0.49 (68%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Clitsome – Moore5:24
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Clitsome2:41
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Comeau – Backlund11:49
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Bourque – Horak10:44
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan6:38
xG 0.21–0.20 (50%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross9:44
xG 0.17–0.70 (19%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Brodie16:34
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler14:33
xG 0.71–0.58 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Hannan – Smith2:37
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).