Thu, Dec 1, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Florida Panthers 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 013 | 116 | 013 | 142 |
| LAK | 19 | 17 | 010 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35LAKJack JohnsonAssists: Matt Greene, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 14:13LAKDustin BrownPPGWGAssists: Slava Voynov, Jonathan Quick · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 15:39FLASean BergenheimAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:07FLASean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:16LAKMike Richards: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:45LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:30LAKDrew Doughty: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:56LAKMatt Greene: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:30FLABracken Kearns: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 10:30LAKColin Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:56FLAMike Santorelli: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:52FLASean Bergenheim: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:52LAKMike Richards: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:52LAKMike Richards: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:52LAKJarret Stoll: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Bergenheim – Matthias6:05
xG 0.85–0.28 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Sturm – Santorelli – Skille5:03
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kennedy – Kearns5:58
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Weiss – Fleischmann5:03
xG 0.06–0.18 (26%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Gudbranson2:45
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Campbell – Garrison14:12
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov10:20
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHunter – Brown – Kopitar10:24
xG 0.73–0.57 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Williams – Loktionov – Clifford4:29
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Gagne – Williams – Stoll3:13
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Moreau – Loktionov – Clifford3:50
xG 0.03–0.11 (20%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Voynov3:34
xG 0.22–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Voynov7:10
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Greene – Johnson7:28
xG 0.48–0.35 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).