Fri, Dec 2, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 318 | 09 | 19 | 436 |
| BUF | 08 | 09 | 111 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:50DETJakub KindlAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Justin Abdelkader · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 13:38DETJohan FranzenPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 14:41DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 13:47BUFJochen HechtAssists: Jason Pominville, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 18:43DETPavel DatsyukENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:13BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:12BUFJason Pominville: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:10BUFThomas Vanek: Holding2 min
- P2 3:12DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:16DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:49DETValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:41BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:58DETJakub Kindl: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:17BUFMarc-Andre Gragnani: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader5:24
xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler8:41
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen10:11
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Cleary – Helm – Conner10:16
xG 0.25–0.50 (34%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Kindl9:55
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- White – Kindl2:03
xG 0.12–0.13 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – White13:17
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe5:08
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Stafford – Ennis6:21
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek7:44
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Leino – Adam – Kassian7:55
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Gragnani15:14
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Regehr – Sekera8:43
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Regehr – McNabb3:51
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).