Fri, Dec 2, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 121 | 110 | 18 | 339 |
| EDM | 17 | 012 | 515 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 18:54CBJMark LetestuPPAssists: Rick Nash, James Wisniewski · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:16CBJDerek DorsettSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 1:41EDMRyan JonesAssists: Ryan Smyth, Ryan Whitney · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 6:19EDMLadislav SmidAssists: Tom Gilbert, Ryan Smyth · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 8:06EDMRyan JonesGWGAssists: Eric Belanger, Magnus Paajarvi · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 11:00CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Marc Methot, Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–4
- P3 15:57EDMAles HemskyAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Sam Gagner · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 19:22EDMRyan JonesENAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:13CBJRick Nash: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:30EDMAndy Sutton: Holding2 min
- P1 17:00CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:00EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 17:00EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:28EDMSam Gagner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:25CBJJared Boll: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:41EDMLadislav Smid: Holding2 min
- P3 8:22EDMSam Gagner: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Letestu – Johansen7:01
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Umberger – Dorsett – Brassard8:55
xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Nash11:14
xG 0.62–0.58 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Pahlsson – MacKenzie – Boll4:45
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin15:42
xG 1.01–0.60 (63%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Johnson – Clitsome10:11
xG 0.83–0.72 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Wisniewski – Methot14:11
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:29
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Hordichuk – Petrell – O'Marra4:00
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Gagner13:05
xG 0.72–0.86 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Belanger – Jones – Paajarvi8:00
xG 0.14–0.59 (20%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSutton – Peckham13:45
xG 0.76–0.17 (82%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Gilbert – Smid11:42
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Whitney – Petry14:31
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).