Fri, Dec 2, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 012 | 114 | 213 | 18 | 447 |
| ANA | 28 | 19 | 04 | 01 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:12ANAAndrew CoglianoPPAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly, Saku Koivu · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 10:34ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Saku Koivu, Matt Beleskey · Slap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 6:31ANAAndrew GordonAssists: Ben Maxwell, Maxime Macenauer · Tip-in, 0.30 xG0–3
- P2 15:18PHIJaromir JagrPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 4:46PHIJaromir JagrPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Daniel Brière · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 16:58PHIScott HartnellAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 3:29PHIClaude GirouxPPGWGAssists: Daniel Brière, Scott Hartnell · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:12ANAMatt Beleskey: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:26PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:27ANANate Guenin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:35ANAMatt Beleskey: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:35PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:35ANAMatt Beleskey: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:35PHIAndrej Meszaros: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:57ANASaku Koivu: Interference2 min
- P2 14:21ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:25ANASaku Koivu: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:49PHIJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:51ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:55ANADevante Smith-Pelly: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:23PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- OT 0:41ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:41ANARyan Getzlaf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Read8:43
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Schenn8:12
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk – Couturier5:18
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux9:13
xG 0.50–0.55 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros8:15
xG 0.26–0.09 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn14:47
xG 0.70–0.68 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Carle – Bourdon6:53
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Maxwell – Macenauer2:34
xG 0.56–0.06 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Hagman – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly4:56
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Beleskey10:55
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Macenauer – Smith-Pelly2:01
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Sbisa12:31
xG 1.04–0.52 (67%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Brookbank – Guenin5:38
xG 0.17–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Fowler2:31
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).